中国垂直专业化比重动态的实证研究

20世纪末到本世纪初的短短十几年，中国经济经历了持续的高速增长，但是中国对主要贸易国家的垂直专业化比重也出现大幅度上升，并对中国国民经济的长期、持续、健康发展以及国民经济安全构成了潜在的威胁。本文以Kai—Mu Yi的两国动态李嘉图垂直专业化模型所建立的垂直专业化与各变量之间的函数关系为基础，运用相对劳动成本，相对资本成本，关税和相对TFP四个变量的时间序列数据进行计量分析，并以计量分析的结果为基础，给出了相关的政策建议。

An Empirical Study on the Dynamics of Chinese Vertical Specialization Rate

From 1990s to 2000s, China economy lasts a high growth as China vertical specialization rate to main trade partners lasts a high growth, which is a latent risk to China economy long-term, safely and successive development. This paper is based on variables function of Kai-Mu Yi dynamic Circadian trade model, and uses the time series data of relative labor cost, relative capital cost, tariff and relative TFP to measurement analysis. Then we bring up some policy suggestion based on the conclusion.