基于技术变迁的技术能级跃迁模型研究

技术变迁可以分为渐进式变迁和革命式变迁(或称为突变),分别对应技术创新的连续变化和不连续变化。根据技术变迁的间断性平衡的观点,以及量子力学中的原子能级跃迁模型,通过分析二者结构和特性的相似点,提出了技术能级跃迁模型,将所有的技术跃迁时间、能级、路径以及技术价值等信息综合在一起可以得到技术能级图,通过此图可以了解技术跃迁的时间、投入、技术所处的状态以及技术未来发展趋势等重要信息。

A Study on Technological Energy Level Transition Model Based on Technological Changes

Technological changes can be divided into two types,progressive change and revolutionary change(mutation),corresponding to constant change and non-constant change of technological innovation respectively.Referring to the theory of discontinuity balance of technological changes and the model of atomic energy level transition in quantum mechanics,the author analyzes the similarities of structures and features of the two and creates the model of technological energy level transition.By using this model,the author synthesizes timing,energy level,and path of technological transition and draws the diagram of the technological energy level,through which the timing and investment of technological transition,current situation and development trend of the technology can be learned.