金字塔结构、业绩波动与信用风险

本文以手工收集的金字塔层级数据为基础,研究企业集团内部企业"地位"与业绩波动的关系以及银行信贷决策是否考查企业的业绩波动。我们的实证研究表明企业处在金字塔越低端,业绩波动越大;企业的国有属性能降低金字塔层级与业绩波动的关系;业绩波动越大,获得的银行贷款越少。用Heckman(1979)解决自选择问题后,以上结论依然成立。本文不仅丰富了金字塔结构经济后果的文献,还对企业的信用风险管理和银行信贷决策有一定帮助。

Pyramid Structure,Performance Fluctuation and Credit Risk

Based on hand-collect data of pyramid layers,we investigate the relationship between a firm's "status" within a business group and its performance fluctuation.Furthermore,we explores whether banks' loan decisions take into consideration the firm's performance fluctuation.Our empirical results demonstrate that for firms at a lower layer of the pyramid structure,larger fluctuation is expected.However,state ownership can help to weaken this relationship between pyramid layer and performance fluctuation.Our findings are robust using Heckman correction(Heckman,1979) for self-select problem.Our study not only contributes to the literature on economic outcomes of pyramid structure,but also provides useful implication to the firms' credit-risk management and banks' loan decisions.