中国农业全要素生产率的变动趋势及区域差异——基于1978～2008年曼奎斯特指数分析

使用1978～2008年省域面板数据,运用非参数曼奎斯特(Malmquist)生产率指数模型测算了中国农业全要素生产率的变动指数,并分析了全要素生产率(TFP)的时空差异。结果表明:全国、三大地区及绝大多数省份农业TFP的增长主要属于技术进步型的增长;全国及三大地区农业TFP增长呈现出明显的波动特征;农业TFP增长呈现出显著的区域间和区域内省际间的不平衡;农业技术效率的下滑制约全国及三大地区农业TFP的增长,而农业技术效率下滑是纯技术效率损失和规模效率下降共同作用的结果。

The Changing Trend and Regional Differences of China Agricultural Total Factor Productivity:Based on 1978-2008 Malmquist Index Analysis

This paper,using 1978-2008 provincial panel data and applying the Malmquist productivity index model parameters,measures the change index of China agricultural total factor productivity and analyses the time and space differences of TFP.The results show that: the agricultural TFP growth of the whole nation,three regions and most provinces belongs to the type of growth of technical progress;the agricultural TFP growth of the whole nation and the three regions obviously reflects fluctuation characteristic;the TFP growth also shows a significant regional and provincial imbalance;the decrease of agricultural technical efficiency restricts the growth of TFP of the whole nation and the three regions;and the decrease of agricultural technology efficiency is the result of joint work between loss of pure technical efficiency and the drop of scale efficiency.