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Public debt and social expenditure: Friends or foes?

Institution:	1. Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal;2. Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, China;3. Department of Finance, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, 2110 Speedway B6600, Austin, TX 78712-1276, USA;4. NBER, USA;1. Deutsche Bundesbank, Statistics Department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany;2. Swiss National Bank, Börsenstrasse 15, P.O. Box 8022 Zürich, Switzerland;1. School of Economics and Management, International Financial Research Center, South China Normal University, China;2. Chongqing University, China;3. University of Nottingham, China;4. School of International Business, Jinan University, China;5. Department of Finance, Guangdong University of Finance, China

Abstract:	This paper assesses the effects of total public debt on social expenditure using an unbalanced panel of 50 countries between 1985 and 2003. The most robust finding is that higher debt ratios reduce social expenditures. Loans from multilateral organizations do not seem to ameliorate the adverse consequences of debt. Results indicate that defaults may have a direct positive effect on social expenditures. The main policy implication is that to protect social expenditures overindebtedness must be avoided.

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