江苏苏南地区环境库茨涅茨曲线实证研究

EKC假说是指在经济发展早期环境质量逐渐恶化,经济发展到一定水平后,环境质量会逐渐改善,即环境压力和经济增长之间呈倒U形关系。文章以苏南地区1986—2004年经济发展和环境面板数据为基础,建立了苏南地区经济发展和工业污染排放的计量模型,以此来分析苏南地区经济增长与环境污染的演替轨迹。结果表明苏南地区环境污染与经济增长之间呈现N型波动EKC特征,工业污染排放量随着人均GDP的快速提高而波浪式地不断恶化,而不同于以往的经典理论中倒U型的形状。苏南地区依然处于污染排放量的增长期,如何抓住机遇,调整产业结构,加大环保投入,转变经济增长方式,平稳地实现转折,实现环境和经济的双赢是苏南地区可持续发展和率先实现全面小康的首要问题。

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE IN SOUTH JIANGSU

The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) hypothesis states that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental degradation and the level of income.As the most developed region in China.The empirical study of Environmental Kuznets Curve in South Jiangsu will identify the phase of development and forecast the trend of future.It is more important that the results will be used for reference for any other regions in Jiangsu province and China.In this paper,environmental and economic data from 1986 to 2004 in South Jiangsu are used to establish an econometric model,which can be applied to explain the pattern of pollution emission and economic development.We use the random effects model of panel data to estimate the model.The results shows that the relationship between pollution emission and economic development in a new pattern of EKC as an "N".The industrial pollution emission increased wavily along with the increase of GDP per capita.It is not same as the traditional inverted U-shaped.Sunan is still at the period of pollution emission increasing.Therefore,in order to achieve the pollution emission decrease and the win-win for economic development and environmental protection,it is urgent for Sunan to adjust the industrial structure,increase environmental devotion and change the economic development mode.