基于Fuzzy-DEMATEL的水环境治理PPP项目风险因素分析

在绿色城镇化建设加快的背景下,水环境治理PPP项目对于稳投资、补短板、惠民生具有积极的作用。针对当前水环境治理PPP项目准公益性强、治理技术集成难度大、治理效果考核复杂、项目统筹协调困难等特点导致社会资本方参与风险较高的问题,基于文献阅读法,整理归纳出融资风险、财务风险、项目技术与管理风险、政府规制风险和环境风险5个一级指标和16个二级指标,利用Fuzzy-DEMATEL方法对社会资本方面临的风险进行分析,借助MATLAB软件计算相关参数,确定了水环境治理PPP项目中的关键因素,并建立风险因素原因结果图。最后提出了创新项目回报支付机制、改革政府财税体制、明确考核标准变更处理原则、建立约束惩戒机制、提升政府公信力等建议以降低项目风险,为推动我国水环境治理PPP项目的快速发展提供参考。

Risk factorsfor PPP projects of water environment treatment based on fuzzy-DEMATEL method

Under the background of accelerating the construction of green urbanization, the PPP project of water environment treatment has a positive role in stabilizing investment, making up for weakness and benefiting people''s livelihood. Owing to the problem of high risk of social capital induced by strong quasi-public welfare of PPP projects, difficult integration of treat techniques, complex assessment of treat effect and difficult coordination of water environment treatment, five first-class and 16 second-class indices of financing, finance, project technology and management, government regulation and environment are summarized based on the literature reading method. The risk of social capital is analyzed by the fuzzy-DEMATEL method. The key factors in PPP projects of water environment treatment are determined by the MATLAB software, and the result chart of risk factors is established. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, including innovating the payment mechanism of project return, reforming the fiscal and taxation system of the government, clarifying the principle of handling the change of assessment standards, establishing the restraint and punishment mechanism, and enhancing the credibility of the government so as to reduce the project risk and provide some reference for promoting the rapid development of PPP projects of water environment treatment in China.