基于SEM的公众洪灾风险认知水平评估——以景德镇市为例

客观、准确评估公众洪灾风险认知水平将有助于提高公众参与积极性。基于保护动机理论框架,从灾前准备意识、灾中应对意识以及灾后恢复意识三方面构建评估体系,以景德镇市为例,建立公众洪灾风险认知的结构方程模型,基于路径系数评估了洪灾风险认知水平。结果表明:洪灾风险认知受灾前准备意识和灾中应对意识的直接影响,灾后恢复意识则产生间接影响,灾前准备意识对洪灾风险认知的影响程度最高;评估指标贡献率上,住宅内部损失经历的贡献率最高,应急物资准备意愿、防洪演练参与意愿的贡献率均超过4%;洪灾风险认知评估结果上,女性的风险认知水平高于男性;青年、老年人群风险认知水平较低。

Assessment of public flood risk perception level based on structural equation model:A case study of Jingdezhen City

The objective and accurate assessment of the public''s perception of flood risk will help to improve their participation enthusiasm. Based on the framework of protection motivation theory, an assessment system is established from three aspects of awareness of preparation before disaster, awareness of coping during disaster and awareness of recovery after disaster. Taking Jingdezhen City as an example, a structural equation model for public flood risk perception is established, and the flood risk perception level is estimated based on the path coefficient. The results indicate that the awareness of preparation before disaster and the awareness of coping during disaster have direct influences on the flood risk perception, while the awareness of recovery after disaster has indirect influences, and the awareness of preparation before disaster has the highest influences on the flood risk perception. In terms of the contribution rate of the evaluation indices, the loss experience in the housing is the highest, and the willingness to prepare for emergency supplies and to participate in flood control drills both contribute more than 4%. From the assessment results of flood risk perception, the female''s perception is higher than the male''s. The risk perception level of the young and old people is low. The research results may provide reference for the training and education of flood safety quality.