| Abstract: | Over the last 12 months industrial production in the OECD area has risen by 8–9 per cent, only slightly less rapidly than in the first year of recovery from the OPEC 1 oil crisis. Much of the growth in output stems from a very rapid expansion in North America although, in the second half of 1983, output in Europe and Japan began to accelerate. We expect the recovery to be maintained during 1984 with some convergence of growth rates. For the year as a whole we are now forecasting 61/2 per cent growth of industrial production, 33/4 per cent for total GNP. By the end of 1983 the long-standing reduction in inflation had run its course and OECD consumer prices were about 5 per cent higher than a year earlier. Within the area some countries, such as France and Italy, were still reducing inflation, but this was offset by the US where inflation has been rising slowly since the summer. We expect these trends to continue in 1984, i.e. stable inflation in the OECD but accelerating prices in the US, producing in each case about 5 per cent inflation. In 1985 we are now forecasting a slowdown in the world economy. This is expected to be centred on the United States, where the problem of the Federal Budget remains to be tackled. By the time of the Presidential election the US economy will have registered two years of relatively rapid growth. This is likely to be producing upward pressure on prices and interest rates and, as a result, a pause in 1985 in the growth of output. In Europe and Japan, where output has grown more slowly, we expect the recovery to be sustained in the medium term. |
