The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;2. Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;3. Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA;4. Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA;5. Division of Biostatistics, Department of Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA;6. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA;7. Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA;8. Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA;1. Centro de Pesquisa Clínica e Epidemiológica do Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;2. Departamento de Clínica Médica da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;3. Instituto do Coração do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;1. Intstitute of Pathology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;2. Department of Translational Genomics, Keck School of Medicine of USC, Los Angeles, CA, USA;3. Department of Radio-Oncology, Inselspital, Bern, Switzerland;4. Breast Center, Inselspital, Bern, Switzerland;5. Department of Molecular Pathology, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA;6. Department of Investigational Cancer Therapeutics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper reviews some recent evidence of the long-run decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities versus manufactures in the context of North-South trade. This evidence is evaluated in the light of competing explanations of the sources of the observed long-run trends in the context of a model of North-South trade which includes a general resource, labor and capital in the North and specific factors in a dual economy model of the South. Changes in factor supply, sectoral and factoral bias in technical change, biased demand conditions, changes in the pattern of protection, and institutional elements, all play a role in determining the evolution of commodity and factor prices. The Lewis hypothesis of sectoral bias in the pattern of technical change towards temperate agriculture in the North and against tropical agriculture in the South is then reexamined in the light of the recent empirical evidence on terms of trade movements and some sketchy evidence presented on the patterns of bias in technical change in the North and the South. The evidence is not consistent with an absolute technical change bias towards temperate agriculture in the North. Rather, the rate of technical change in temperate agriculture is now comparable to that experienced in manufactures so that Engel curve effects now assert the major downward pressure on the long-run terms of trade between temperate agriculture commodities and manufactures, overriding the effects of diminishing returns to natural resources as Northern population expands. The empirical evidence onbiased technical change in the South is much more sketchy and the evidence on various components of North-South terms of trade is more varied. |
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