| Abstract: | Expenditure patterns among a sample of 99 rural households in two communal districts in KwaZulu-Natal were investigated to determine the potential impact of a widespread income shock on household expenditure. The results showed expenditure elasticities of close to unity for food. Low elasticities were found for staple foods. Elasticities for meat, meat products and poultry were close to unity, while horticultural products showed the greatest potential for demand growth within the food category. Of the statistically significant commodity categories, expenditure elasticities for durables, housing and transport were more than double those estimated for the aggregate food category. For consumer items, the district expenditure elasticities were estimated to be 0,76 and 0,71, while expenditure on social obligations would not increase with rural incomes. Wealthier households (the top expenditure decile) have a greater propensity for increased expenditure on transport, while poorer households show a greater propensity for increased expenditure on housing and durables. Although agriculture has the potential to generate widespread growth in rural incomes, the preference for manufactured goods casts some doubt on the strength of consumption multipliers for locally produced farm and non-farm goods in rural KwaZulu-Natal. |
