Adoption rate forecasts and rollout strategies

Long-term broadband penetration forecasts for Western Europe are presented. The broadband penetration forecasts are adjusted according to the broadband coverage. The adjusted forecasts are defined as adoption rate forecasts. These forecasts are used as input to the techno-economic calculations to examine broadband roll out in the different access area types. The paper documents the profitability of broadband rollouts in sparsely populated areas and estimates the limits for having monopoly areas as a function of given characteristics. The identified monopoly areas will of course contribute to higher broadband coverage because the profitability in these small areas will be better than earlier expected because of none competition.