社会网络与新产品扩散协同演化研究

基于复杂网络视角，从微观层面对新产品扩散问题进行研究。结合心理学、社会学和博弈论，构建个体决策行为模型，并设计出一种智能学习方法实现消费者间的互动。在Anylogic上建立多Agent模型，考虑局部网络效应，设计网络演化规则，探究不同网络环境下网络结构和消费者决策共同演化规律，并分析产品效用参数、沟通交互强度、种子用户数量以及链接断开时间对共同演化的影响。研究发现：①尽管初始网络结构不同，消费者关系结构均能够以更高的聚集性和稳定性重构，且在小世界和无标度网络下，共同演化、彼此促进，从而有助于产品扩散；②尽管在高度数的无标度网络下共同演化会使扩散结果呈现出两面性，但在扩散过程中网络结构变化趋势一致；③网络效应强度提高能增大产品效用值，但过高和过低的效用值都将削弱网络演化对扩散的促进效果；④种子用户在达到一定规模后，不再影响最终扩散结果；⑤若共同演化能在最终时刻前达到稳定，链接断开时间则不影响扩散结果。

Research on Co Evolution of Social Network and New Product Diffusion

Based on the perspective of complex network,the problem of new product diffusion is discussed on a microscopic level.First,the customer decision making behavior model is designed combined with psychology，sociology，game theory and other relative theories.An intelligent learning method is applied to accomplish the interactions of customers' decision making behaviors.Then,the muti agent simulation model is implemented on the software Anylogic,considering local network effects and designing network evolution rules.At last,the co evolution rules of social network and consumer's decision under different network environments are explored,and the impacts of product utility parameters,communication intensity,the numbers of seed users on the co evolution and the marginal time of link broken are analyzed in the process of new product diffusion.The Research shows that：①even though the original structures of network are different,the relations between consumers are reorganized in a new way with higher aggregation and stability,and the co evolution is accelerated and positive to each other in small world network and scale free network；②even though the co evolution outcomes show dual character under the scale free network with a high degree,the variation tendencies of network structure are highly similar in the process of the diffusion；③the product value increases with the promotion of network effect,while the positive functions of the co evolution will eliminate,if the network effect is extremely high or low；④the diffusion outcome will not be influenced when the scale of seed users reach up to a certain