基于高不确定的国家重大科技项目管理研究——以重大新药创制科技重大专项为例

高不确定的国家重大科技项目在管理上更重视技术创新的实现，过往线性的绩效管理体系仅能实现项目本身的绩效优化，但滞后性强、应变难度大，项目管理亟须动态化的管理变革。在深度解构国家重大科技项目高不确定属性的基础上，对重大新药创制科技重大专项的管理实践进行分析，从项目时间、项目过程和项目产出3个角度架构不确定性模型。通过借鉴国内外项目管理实践，从理论变革和组织优化两方面提供建议，以实现新型管理趋势下国家重大科技项目的动态管理。

Management of National Scientific Research Projects with High Uncertainty:Taking the new drug research and development in the major science and technology projects as an example

National scientific research projects with high uncertainty should pay more attention to the realization of technological innovation management. The past linear performance management system only can realize the performance optimization of the project itself. But the lagging is strong, the strain is big, the project management urgently needs the dynamic management transformation. Based on the in-depth deconstruction of the high-uncertainty attributes of national scientific research projects, through the theoretically analysis of the management practice of the new drug research and development in the major science and technology projects, the uncertainty model is built from three perspectives: time, process, and output. By drawing lessons from domestic and foreign project management practices, suggestions are provided from two aspects, theoretical reform and organizational optimization to realize the dynamic management of national scientific research projects under the new management trend.