有偏技术进步对碳强度的影响及传导机制研究

通过构建包含资本、劳动和碳要素的超越对数函数模型，对中国30个省（市）（因数据缺失，不包含西藏和港澳台地区）技术进步偏向进行判别，通过构建多重中介效应模型，探究其影响碳强度的传导机制，并分析不同资源丰裕度下传导机制的异质性。主要结论：(1)碳要素偏向型技术进步和碳强度呈显著正相关，技术进步偏向碳节约型有助于推动碳减排；(2)碳要素偏向型技术进步可通过能源利用效率和经济发展水平中介效应间接影响碳强度；(3)资源型省（市）主要通过提高经济发展水平路径，而非资源型省（市）主要通过提高能源利用效率路径促进碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应；(4)碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应存在显著双门槛效应，能源利用效率越大、经济发展水平越高，碳要素偏向型技术进步对碳强度的影响越大。因此，需加大技术进步偏向碳要素节约的诱导力度，注意不同资源丰裕度下碳减排的不同路径，加强能源利用效率提高，推动经济绿色发展，助力“双碳”目标实现。

Study on the Influence of Biased Technological Progress on Carbon Intensity and Its Transmission Mechanism

this paper discriminates the technological progress bias of 30 provinces (cities) in China by constructing a transcendental logarithmic function model including capital, labor and carbon elements, and explores the transmission mechanism that affects carbon emission intensity by constructing a multiple intermediary effect model. and analyze the heterogeneity of the transmission mechanism under different resource abundance. Main conclusions: 1 there is a significant positive correlation between carbon element biased technological progress and carbon emission intensity, and technological progress biased towards carbon saving type helps to promote carbon emission reduction. (2) the carbon factor biased technological progress can indirectly affect the carbon emission intensity through the intermediary effect of energy use efficiency and economic development level. (3) Resource-based provinces (cities) mainly promote the emission reduction effect of carbon-biased technological progress through the path of improving the level of economic development, while non-resource-based provinces (cities) mainly promote the emission reduction effect of carbon-biased technological progress through the path of improving energy efficiency. (4) the emission reduction effect of carbon element biased technological progress has a significant double threshold effect. The greater the energy use efficiency and the higher the level of economic development, the greater the impact of carbon element biased technological progress on carbon emission intensity. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the induction of technological progress towards carbon saving, pay attention to different paths of carbon emission reduction under different resource abundance, strengthen the improvement of energy use efficiency, promote the green development of economy, and help to achieve the goal of "double carbon".