The Evolution of Certainty in a Small Decision-Making Group by Consensus |
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Authors: | Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi |
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Affiliation: | 1.Institutul de Cercetare a Calit??ii Vie?ii,Academia Roman?,Bucharest,Romania;2.Facultatea de Sociologie ?i Asisten?? Social?,Universitatea Bucure?ti,Bucharest,Romania |
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Abstract: | We propose a dynamical systems model for approximating the certainty as a function of communication. Uncertainty is measured during a small group decision-making process, in which participants aim to reach consensus. Assuming that the communication is a one-dimensional continuum variable, both first- and second-order differential models of certainty are analyzed, and then, the general model is obtained by superposition. An experiment was organized, and the data have been used to test the model. A detailed discussion on the assumptions of this approach from the decision theory point of view is also included. |
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