供给侧要素对京津冀工业能源强度的异质性影响分析

京津冀协同发展,工业节能减排是重点突破领域,供给侧改革是重要抓手。为探讨供给侧要素影响京津冀工业能源强度的区域异质性,利用2000—2017年京、津、冀三个区域的时间序列数据,分别构建工业能源强度与劳动生产率、投资强度、能源消费结构、科技创新、环境规制等供给侧要素间的岭回归分析模型,进而运用通径分析法揭示各要素间的内在机理,总结供给侧要素影响京津冀工业能源强度的异质性效应。结果表明:劳动生产率的提高对降低京津冀工业能源强度起促进作用;投资强度的上升对京津的影响微弱,但对河北省起抑制作用;能源消费结构的改善对京津起促进作用,但短期内对河北省起抑制作用;科技创新对津冀的贡献显著,但对北京市的边际效应较小;环境规制强度的上升对京津起抑制作用,但对河北省的作用不明显。

Research on the Heterogeneity Effect of Supply Side Factors Affecting Industrial Energy Intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

With the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,industrial energy-saving and emission reduction is a key breakthrough area,and supply-side reform is an important starting point.To explore the regional heterogeneity of the supply-side factors affecting the industrial energy intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the time series data of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei in 2000—2017 are used to construct a ridge regression model between industrial energy intensity and supply side factors such as labor productivity,investment intensity,energy consumption structure,technological innovation and environmental regulation.Then,this paper uses the path analysis method to reveal the internal mechanism among supply side factors and summarizes the heterogeneous effect of supply side factors on the energy intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial energy.The results show that the improvement of labor productivity will promote the reduction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial energy intensity;the increase in investment intensity has a weak influence on Beijing and Tianjin,but it has a inhibitory effect on Hebei Province in the short term;Scientific and technological innovation contributes significantly to Tianjin and Hebei,but has less marginal utility on Beijing;the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation has a depressing effect on Beijing and Tianjin,but its effect on Hebei Province is not obvious.