我国外部均衡调节中的估值效应分析

世界金融一体化促进各国对外资产与负债迅速增长。资产价格的非预期变化使一国对外净资产更多地暴露于资本收益和损失风险中,因此,如何实现有利于一国外部均衡的估值效应就显得日益重要。本文对估值效应的理论模型和计量方法进行梳理,并对我国对外净资产变化中的估值效应进行实证分析,结果发现存在负的估值效应,表明我国通过经常项目盈余所聚积的大量资源正在不断地向国外无偿转移,这就要求对外资产管理水平稳步提高。

An Analysis of Valuation Effects in the Adjustment of China' s External Imbalance

The recent wave of financial globalization has come along with a sharp increase in gross foreign assets and liabilities. Investors and countries are much more exposed to capital gains and losses owing to unanticipated changes of asset prices, so valuation effects in external adjustment play a more important role than ever before. This paper combs academic and econometric methods of valuation effects, then testifies whether valuation effects exist in China or not, and the result indicates that China has a negative valuation in external adjustment, which means that China is transferring magnitude resources to aboard, so the government should pay more attention to management of foreign assets and liabilities.