中国贸易依存度的实证分析

经济全球化的大背景下，特别是中国加入WTO后，中国经济融入世界经济的步伐加快，传统贸易依存度从1978年的9.8%，80年代中期的23%提高到1999年的36.4%，2000年进一步提高到43.9%，其中出口依存度达到23.1%。2003年达到60.4%，出口依存度提高到31.1%。随之而来，部分学者高呼：贸易依存度过高，中国经济安全日益受到危胁，应该降低贸易依存度，本文以分析传统贸易依存度的概念为出发点，结合经济学原理，从一国对国际贸易的依赖程度和对一国的经济贡献角度提出贸易依存度新的度量方法，得出中国外贸依存度是相当低的。

The Analysis of the Dependent Ratio of China's Foreign Trade

Under the background of economic globalization, China speeds up its pace of mixing with the world economy especially after China's entry into WTO. The traditional ratio of China's foreign trade dependency has increased from 9.8%(1978),23%(middle 1980s) to 36.4%(1999). The increasing tendency of China's foreign trade dependent ratio which hits 43.9%(2000) and 60.4%(2003) is notable. In addition, the ratio of export dependency touched 23.1%(2000) and 31.1%(2003). Some experts claim that the traditional ratio of China's foreign trade dependency is so high that the security of China economy will be threatened. This paper gives analysis to the traditional ratio of China's foreign trade dependency from the viewpoint of its contribution to economy. In addition, a new measurement method of the ratio of foreign trade dependency by which we can conclude that the ratio is comparative low is given.