我国原木进口变化驱动因素的实证分析

过去的十几年间,我国木材进口迅猛增长。木材的大量进口一方面缓解了国内的需求压力,另一方面也带来了诸多不利影响。因此,研究我国木材进口迅猛增长的根源意义重大。在分析我国近年来原木进口变化趋势的基础上,利用逐步回归法定量分析了导致我国木材进口快速增加的主要因素。研究结果表明:1993-2008年间,国内木材产量、家具和木材制成品出口以及汇率因素对原木进口量变化的作用最为显著,成为此期间影响原木进口量变化的主要决定因素。并提出了相应的政策建议。

Empirical Analysis on Change of Driving Factors of China's Timber Import

China's timber import increased rapidly in the last decade.In the one hand,the large import of timber has relieved the pressure of domestic demand.On the other hand,it has also brought many adverse effects.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the source of the rapid growth of China's timber import.This paper firstly describes the trend of timber import,and then it tries to find out the main factors of its fast growth with the quantitative analysis method of stepwise regression.The empirical study ...