Reframing the Past: Thoughts about Business Leadership and Decision Making under Uncertainty

How do business leaders make decisions in the face of uncertainty?More important, how do business and economic historians writea narrative that links a business problem, its proposed solution,and the outcome of this action without allowing the successor failure of the decision to determine the trajectory of thestory? Counterfactual hypotheses and contextual analysis providetwo tools that can help historians minimize the distortionsof hindsight and recover a sense of the contingency that surroundsall decisions.