基于动态CGE模型的能源价格传导效应分析

从成本推动的视角出发,将能源放入一般均衡的框架,通过各种嵌套函数、税收和汇率转换等内在机理把价格之间的关系联系起来,对能源价格的传导机制进行理论分析;并将该分析框架纳入可计算一般均衡模型,定量分析能源价格变动的经济效应。研究结果显示,能源价格上涨对宏观经济具有紧缩作用,其中煤电价格对经济增长的紧缩作用比石油大;能源价格上涨导致第二产业内部发生较为明显的差异性变化,说明其对产业结构调整有明显作用,而这样的产业结构调整又会对各产业的耗能和污染排放的减少起到积极作用。

The Impacts of the Transmission of Energy Price Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

From the perspective of cost push, this paper analyzed the transmission mechanism of the price of energy based on the price relationship, which was expressed through the internal mechanism of various nested functions, taxes and currency conversion under the general equilibrium framework. And then, we packaged the price equations into a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, and quantitatively analyzed the economic effect of energy price changes. The results showed that, the rise in energy prices had a tightening effect on the macro economy, among which the tightening effect of coal is bigger than oil. Rising energy prices led to an obvious change in the internal structure of the second industry. Increasing the price of energy played positive role in reducing the energy consumption and pollution emissions of industries.