Polarisation and Reversion under Competition: Profitability of Indian Firms

We analyse profitability dynamics in a large emerging economy, India, over the two-and-a-half decades since economic liberalisation began in earnest. We find that the average rate at which Indian firms reverted to normal profitability increased significantly, particularly for firms earning supernormal profits. In contrast, firms earning below-normal profitability have been marked by little reversion to normal. Inducing underperforming firms to improve their profitability is of great policy importance. The pattern in profitability dynamics of Indian firms in the early years was consistent with a polarised long-run profitability distribution. The polarisation tendency was reversed in later years, but the projected long-run profitability distribution has a substantial underperforming tail.