中日韩自由贸易区的贸易流量和福利效应分析:一个局部均衡的校准方法

校准方法作为一种确定数理经济模型中的变量和参数的手段之一,在贸易政策的建模研究中得到广泛的应用.本文以局部均衡为基础,利用中日韩三国自1990～2003年共14年的贸易额及相关数据建立校准模型,并对拟议中的中日韩自由贸易区做出比较静态分析,从产业层面来模拟中日韩自由贸易区建成后所可能带来的福利效应.分析结果表明,中日韩三国建立自由贸易区会增加彼此的国民福利水平,并会对未加入贸易协定的其他东亚国家产生影响.因此,在东亚形成更为广泛的自由贸易安排从区域合作的角度来看是一种更佳的合作方式.

Trade Flows and Welfare Effects of a FTA among China, Japan and South Korea:A Partial Equilibrium Calibration Approach

As an important method to determinate the parameters, calibration have become a central element of empirical studies in international trade analysis. This paper, based upon partial equilibrium, establishes a Global Simulation Model to predict the bilateral trade flow and welfare effects among three countries from 1990 to 2003 by using SITC data. The result shows that a FTA among three countries will increase their national welfare at the expense of other non-FTA east-Asia countries.