FDI资金流动下的政策有效性与人民币汇率政策

本文考虑到我国资本和金融账户下主要以FDI资金流动为主的现实,修正了BP曲线,并建立了一个确定性的静态模型.研究表明,我国主要针对短期资本流动所进行的资本账户管制并没有降低外部经济环境对国内经济的冲击;在以FDI形式为主的资本流动条件下,本币的大幅度升值对我国的经济增长和一般价格水平所产生的收缩性的影响是巨大的,采取大幅度的本币升值措施以缓解中美贸易顺差极不可取,它会沉重打击经济增长和就业目标的实现,并造成通货紧缩的巨大压力.在此情况下,渐进地放松对短期资本流动的管制;或提高本国利率以遏制FDI形式的资本流入;或在本币稳步、渐进升值的同时,渐进地放松对短期资本流动的管制确实可以降低本币升值对宏观经济所产生的收缩性的影响.

Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policies and RMB Exchange-rate Policy in the Case of FDI

This paper modifies the BP curve and constructs a static model without uncertainty based on the reality of FDI flow under Capital and Finance Accounts in China.The results show that capital regulations on short-term capital flow have no effect on the external influence on China economy, that major appreciation of RMB will greatly decrease China's economic growth and general price level.Thus it is inappropriate to vastly appreciate RMB to alleviate the trade balance between China and the U.S.because of the great pressure upon the economic growth,employment,and deflation.Under these circumstances,it would decrease economic contraction brought by RMB appreciation to gradually deregulate short-term capital flow,to raise domestic interest to prevent FDI inflow,and to gradually and steadily appreciate RMB accompanied by gradual deregulation of short-term capital flow.