我国经济增长中制度因素的实证分析

经济增长的决定因素是技术还是制度?学术界的争论由来已久,至今尚无定论。本文运用中国改革开放后的一些统计资料,通过计量研究,从经济增长中的诸因素中分离出来了制度因素,并测算了制度因素对经济增长的贡献。得出的结论是:在我国经济转轨时期,制度因素对经济增长的作用大于纯技术进步对经济增长的促进作用。因而,制度因素应是目前和今后一个时期我国经济增长的关键因素,抛开制度条件而片面地强调科技的第一生产力作用很可能不会取得预期效果。

A Positive Analysis of the Institutional Factors in Economic Growth

Which is the determinant of economic growth, technology or institution? This has long been a hot issue without solution in academic circles. On the basis of statistical data achieved after China's reforming and opening to the outside world and computation study, institutional factors are separated from the other factors in the economic development. And their contribution to China's economic growth is measured and calculated. The conclusion is that the institutional factors play a more essential role than technological progress to boost economic growth. Therefore, ideal results may not be achieved by laying excessive emphasis on "science and technology being the first productive forces" with on consideration of institutional factors.