人民币升值预期、资产升值预期与热钱流入——基于适应性预期理论的实证分析

本文以2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革以来的宏观经济形势为背景,着重考虑了这段时间以来国内普遍存在的两种预期:人民币升值预期和资产升值预期,并以此为切入点建立了热钱流入与上述两种预期的适应性预期计量模型;根据汇率改革以来相关数据,在估算热钱流入量的基础上运用广义矩估计方法定量分析了人民币升值预期、资产升值预期与热钱流入之间的关系,进一步分析并阐述了两种预期形成过程中的特征和问题;最后本文根据实证结果提出了相关政策建议。

Hot Money Inflow with the Expectations of RMB and Asset Appreciation——An Empirical Study based on the Theory of Adaptive Expectations

Based on the macroeconomic background since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21, 2005,this paper mainly considers two widespread expectations existing in China during this period of time,namely,the expectation of RMB appreciation and the expectation of asset appreciation and constructs an adaptive expectation econometrics model concerning hot money inflow and those two expectations. According to relevant data since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and based on the estimation of the amount of hot money inflow,this paper uses the GMM method to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the expectations of RMB and asset appreciation and the inflow of hot money, further analyzes and states the features and problems existing in the forming process of those two expectations. This paper raises relevant policy suggestions according to the empirical result.