资本账户、法定汇率制度与事实汇率制度

文章对资本账户开放程度以及法定与事实汇率制度之差异的共同决定过程进行了研究。文章以世界各国自布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来的相关数据为基础,利用离散变量联立方程模型进行计量经济学分析。经验分析的结果表明,资本账户的开放程度,对于法定与事实汇率制度的差异有显著影响,但后者对前者的影响并不显著。此外,无论是资本账户的开放程度,还是法定与事实汇率制度的差异,都存在显著的状态依赖性。

Capital Account, De Jure Exchange Rate Regimes, and De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the joint determination of capital account openness and discrepancies between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes.For a large sample of industrial and developing countries during the post-Bretton-Woods era,we construct an ordered index to measure capital account openness.While de jure exchange rate regimes are classified by the IMF,de facto regimes are classified by Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger or by Reinhart and Rogoff.The cross distribution between capital account openness and regime discrepancies implies strong interactions between them.We adopt a simultaneous equations model to allow mutual endogeneity of capital account openness and regime discrepancies.We find significant influences from decisions about capital account openness on those about regime discrepancies.The influences of regime discrepancies on capital account openness are often ignorable.We also find strong true state dependence in the decision-making process concerning both capital account openness and regime discrepancies.