Versicherungszyklen in der deutschen KFZ-Versicherung

In this paper we analyze underwriting cycles in the German motor insurance industries for the last 50 years. A special emphasis is laid on the so-called aggregation bias that arises when data from different lines of business is merged in a total market statistic. In literature, underwriting cycles were found for many international markets and for numerous lines of business. We find underwriting cycles for the German motor insurance with lengths between six and ten years, which have been increasing for the last years. Our empirical evidence on cycle lengths in German motor insurance fits well into the context of international comparative studies on underwriting cycles.