对外开放与经济增长:基于山东的实证研究

文章依据1984-2009年的时间序列数据，以外贸依存度、外资依存度为度量指标对山东省的对外开放度进行了测算，并基于协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰检验对山东省对外开放与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，山东省对外开放度提高很快，但低于全国平均水平及其他沿海省份；长期而言，经济增长与外贸依存度存在稳定的协整关系，而与外资依存度不存在协整关系；短期来看，经济增长与外贸依存度存在双向因果关系，进口对经济增长的促进作用显著大于出口。最后，提出了相关政策建议。

An Empirical Study on Opening up and Economic Growth in Shandong

This paper,according to the time-sequence data from 1984 to 2009 of Shandong,measures the degree of opening up using the foreign trade reliance and foreign investment reliance as indexes,and studies the relationship between opening up and economic growth by co-integration test,error correction model and Granger causality test.The results indicate that: Shandong degree of opening up has been growing fast,but stays low compared with national average and other coastal provinces.For a long time,there is a stabl...