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The geometric chain-ladder |
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| Authors: | D Kuang JP Nielsen |
| Institution: | 1. Lloyds, 1 Lime Street, London, UK.;2. Cass Business School, City University London, London, UK. |
| Abstract: | AbstractThe log normal reserving model is considered. The contribution of the paper is to derive explicit expressions for the maximum likelihood estimators. These are expressed in terms of development factors which are geometric averages. The distribution of the estimators is derived. It is shown that the analysis is invariant to traditional measures for exposure. |
| Keywords: | arithmetic chain-ladder geometric chain-ladder canonical parameter identification problem maximum likelihood log-normal model |