The estimation of mortality and other decremental probabilities

Abstract

The standard actuarial methods of estimating the age-specific one-year probabilities of death in a given community were developed—for the most part, many years ago-with large bodies of observations in mind. Although the familiar “exposed to risk” procedure is known to provide unbiased estimates only when a rather dubious assumption is made about the progression of the instantaneous death-rate (the force of mortality) over the year of age (Cantelli, 1914) it is still the most widely used method of estimation. This is partly because the age-to-age increment in human mortality is relatively small—so that assumptions about its mathematical form are unimportant—and partly because suggested methods of estimation based on more “realistic” assumptions are usually laborious to apply to thousands of observations.