Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure |
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Authors: | Theofanis Archontakis – Wolfgang Lemke † |
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Institution: | Corresponding author: Union PanAgora Asset Management and Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany. E-mail:. Financial support from the DFG (German Research Foundation) is gratefully acknowledged.;Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Germany. E-mail: . |
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Abstract: | This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The short-term interest rate follows a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process that allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favour of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure captures stylized facts of the data. In particular, it implies a nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate. |
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Keywords: | E43 G12 C22) |
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