Terms of Trade and Welfare for a Developing Economy with an Imperfectly Competitive Sector

The effect of terms of trade on the welfare of a small open economy is analyzed. It exports a homogeneous good and imports some brands of a differentiated good. It also produces some brands of the differentiated good which are not traded. A terms-of-trade deterioration causes resources to move to the nontraded, import-competing sector. The economy's income rises and the price index for the differentiated good falls, resulting in higher welfare. This accords well with the experience of developing economies of East and Southeast Asia.