非现金支付的发展及其规律性的分析

本文分析了2013年至2017年我国非现金支付发展情况及其规律性，建立了关于非现金支付工具选择偏好的模型。数据分析发现，在这段时间传统的非现金支付业务出现了较大幅度的下降，而新型的电子化支付工具迅速发展，特别是网上支付和移动支付业务规模出现爆发性增长。理论研究表明，非现金支付工具的选择主要决定于安全性、便利性和使用成本，而这三项因素又受到交易规模的影响。交易规模越大，人们对支付工具的安全性要求越高，对便利性要求越低，也可以接受付费和较高的使用成本；交易规模越小，人们对支付工具的便利性要求越高，对安全性要求降低，也不可以接受付费和较高的使用成本；在交易规模一定的情况下，越安全、越便利、使用成本越低的支付工具越能得到使用。本文建议，应将非银行支付机构的账户余额纳入M1范围，加强对非现金支付工具的统计分析，加快开发中央银行主导的新型非现金支付工具。

Analysis on the Development and Regularity of Non-cash Payment

This paper analyses the development and regularity of non-cash payment from 2013 to 2017 in China and builds up a theoretical model about selection preference of non-cash payment instruments. Data analysis shows that the volume of traditional non-cash payment instruments decreased sharply, while the new types of electronic payment instruments developed very fast in the last few years, especially the volume of online payment and mobile payment achieved dramatical growth. The theoretical model indicates that the choices of non-cash payment instruments are determined by security, convenience, and the cost of use. Moreover, these three factors are affected by the payment volume. The larger the payment volume, the higher the demand for security of payment instruments, and the lower the demand for convenience, in another word, people may accept payment fees and a rather high cost of use. Otherwise, the smaller the payment volume, the higher the demand for convenience, the lower the demand for security, and people may not accept the payment fees and a higher cost of use. At a certain level of payment volume, the payment instruments with higher security, better convenience and lower cost of use would be more acceptable. The paper suggests including the account balance of non-bank payment institutions into M1, strengthening the statistics and analysis on non-cash payment and accelerating the development of non-cash payment instruments of Central Bank.