基于驱动机制的城市扩展空间预测方法探讨——以原杭州市区为例

以1998年和2003年两个时期的杭州市区土地利用调查数据为基础,采用驱动因子相关分析和GIS空间技术,预测2005年杭州市区空间扩展情况。预测结果表明,2005年杭州市区扩展主要集中在滨江区、下沙区、西湖区的三墩区块以及拱墅区的北部。这一结果与2005年杭州城市用地发展的状况基本相似、符合政策导向,因此基于驱动机制的城市扩展空间预测方法可靠。

Forecasting Methods for Urban Development Space According to Driving Mechanism——Taking Hangzhou Proper as Example

The paper illustrates the reliability of the forecasting methods for urban development space according to driving mechanism by example.Be based on the survey data of land use in Hangzhou proper in 1998 and 2003,the paper gives a detailed introduction to the forecasting method of space development situation of Hangzhou proper in 2005,which adopted relevant analysis of driving factors and GIS space technology.The result shows that the forecasting result is basically similar to the real situation of urban land use development,and be in line with the policy guide.