| 基于混合多项式模型的韶山红色旅游需求人数预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李少游,程丹,刘利斌. 基于混合多项式模型的韶山红色旅游需求人数预测[J]. 桂林旅游高等专科学校学报, 2012, 5(1): 98-101 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李少游 程丹 刘利斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 桂林理工大学旅游学院,广西桂林,541004
2. 池州学院数学计算机科学系,安徽池州,247000 |
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| 基金项目： | [基金项目]广西研究生教育创新计划项目，安徽省高校自然科学研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于三次和四次多项式拟合模型。针对韶山红色旅游景区旅游需求人数预测问题，提出了混合多项式拟合预测模型．该模型可以解决信息呈递增趋势的问题，结果具有一定的可信度．将该模型与灰色预测模型GM（1,1）进行比较，结果表明，混合多项式拟合预测模型的平均相对误差明显要低于GM（1,1）模型，且计算代价更小．
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| 关 键 词： | 混合多项式 红色旅游 韶山旅游景区 预测 |
Red Tourism Demand Forecasting of Shaoshan Scenic Area Based on the Mixed Polynomial Fitted Model |
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| LI Shao-you,CHENG Dan,LIU Li-bin. Red Tourism Demand Forecasting of Shaoshan Scenic Area Based on the Mixed Polynomial Fitted Model[J]. Journal of Guilin Institute of Tourism, 2012, 5(1): 98-101 |
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| Authors: | LI Shao-you CHENG Dan LIU Li-bin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Tourism College ,Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004,China 2. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science of Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on cubic and quartic polynomial fitted models, the mixed polynomial fitted model is presented for red tourism demand forecasting in Shaoshan scenic area. The model can be used to solve problems of which information is with the trend of increasing, and the conclusion is with some extent of credibility. By comparison with GM （1, 1） model, it is shown in the result that the average relative error of the mixed polynomial fitted model is significantly smaller and more over its cost of computing is lower. |
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| Keywords: | mixed polynomial red tourism Shaoshan tourism scenic area forecast |
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