我国贸易回滞的实证分析

首先阐述了贸易回滞产生的根源在于贸易市场结构的变化。然后对1981—2001年我国净出口和汇率的时间序列数据分别进行ADF检验，检验结果表明两者都有单位根，即均为随机漫步序列。这样净出口就可能存在回滞。我们再对净出口和汇率进行协整检验，检验结果表明这两个变量之间不存在协整，这进一步证实了两者之间确实不存在函数关系。由此得出我国存在贸易回滞的结论并据此提出人民币不应贬值等几项政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on China''''s Trade Lagging of Net Export to Changes in Exchange Rates

This paper sets out an analysis on the causes of trade lagging phenomenon and concludes that changes in the trade market structure provides the key explanation.Then an ADF test is applied to the 1981 2001 time series data of China's net export and the exchange rates.The test shows that both of the two time series has a unity root which proves both of them is random walk series data.This is followed by a test on the net export and the exchange rates data,with a layout showing non existence of the systematic covariance,thus further confirming the non functional relationship between the two variables.These tests give out the conclusion that trade lagging exists in China.On this basis the paper raises some policy suggestions regarding not necessary to devaluate the Chinese currency.