Estimating The Price Impact of the Victorian Terminal Gate Pricing Scheme

The Victorian terminal gate pricing scheme commenced in August 2001. This paper will quantify the impact of the scheme on relative Melbourne and country Victoria retail petrol prices. This is done through autoregressive integrated moving average modelling coupled with intervention analysis using weekly price data. For Melbourne it was found the scheme was associated with an increase of around 2.2 cents per litre from late October 2001. For country Victoria it was associated with an increase of around 2.1 cents per litre from early November 2001. Claims the increase in relative Melbourne retail petrol prices was part of some wider trend across mainland capital cities was tested and found to be without empirical support. It is concluded terminal gate pricing made Melbourne and country Victoria motorists unambiguously worse off.