老年照料对农村劳动力转移空间距离影响研究

基于劳动力流动理论，以家庭成员整体利益最大化为前提假设，运用有序probit模型，采用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，考量老年照料对农村劳动力转移空间距离的影响。结果显示：老年照料对县乡村内短距离转移有促进效应，对县外市内、市外省内、省外转移有牵制效应且距离越远牵制效应越明显。异质性研究表明，老年照料对男性劳动力转移兼具促进效应与牵制效应，已婚女性因偏好于近距离转移影响不明显；“夹心层”家庭子女牵制效应显著。鉴于此，应凝聚“依亲而居”社会合力，挖掘本地非农就业潜力，构建老年照料服务多元供给体系，缓解老年照料压力。

The Study on the Impact of Elderly Care on the Spatial Distance of Rural Labor Force Transfer

Based on the theory of labor transfer or mobility, the hypothesis of maximizing the overall interests of family members, this study uses an ordered probit model and data from the China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS) (2018) to examine the impact of elderly care on the spatial distance of rural labor transfer. Empirical findings:Elderly care has a promoting effect on short distance transfer within counties and villages, and has a restraining effect on transfer outside counties, cities, provinces, and provinces, with the restraining effect becoming more pronounced as the distance increases. Heterogeneity studies indicate :The effect of gender preference for close distance transfer on married women is not significant, the impact of caregiving pressure on male labor force includes two aspects: promoting effect and restraining effect. Elderly care has become an important factor in achieving close mobility of rural labor force. To further promote “human movement”, ought to collaborative governance the issues of labor force transfer and population aging.