基于Logit模型的新兴经济体主权债务危机预警研究

当前新兴经济体对全球经济增长贡献持续增加,在世界经济中的地位和作用日益突出。伴随新兴经济体经济规模的快速增长,其债务规模也在迅速扩大,随之而来的债务风险问题日益受到国际关注。特别是2008年以来,希腊等新兴经济体债务危机频频发生,对世界经济增长与金融稳定产生了巨大影响。因此,研究构建新兴经济体主权债务危机预警系统显得十分迫切和重要。本文阐述债务危机形成机理和影响,梳理债务危机相关理论和文献;讨论债务危机预警手段及相关标准选择,总结归纳多种研究模型和方法的优缺点,并说明本文采用Logit模型研究问题的依据和过程;基于Logit模型,选取拉丁美洲、亚洲、非洲共十个新兴经济体1980-2017年数据进行债务危机预警实证分析。研究结果表明,Logit方法能够以较高准确率发出预警信号,对新兴经济体债务危机有着良好预警能力;最后,本文根据研究结论给出相应启示与建议。

Early Warning Study on the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Emerging Economies Based on Logit Model

At present, emerging economies continue to increase their contribution to global economic growth and play an increasingly prominent role in the world economy. However, with the rapid growth of the economic scale of emerging economies, their debt scale is also expanding rapidly. Since 2008, in particular, the debt crisis of Greece and other emerging economies has occurred frequently, which has had a huge impact on world economic growth and financial stability. Therefore,it is very urgent and important to study and build an early warning system of sovereign debt crisis in emerging economies.In order to reveal the formation mechanism and influence of debt crisis, this paper, guided by relevant theories of debt crisis, draws on the research results of relevant debt crisis warning methods, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of various debt crisis warning methods, and decides to use Logit model to carry out empirical analysis on debt crisis warning of emerging economies. Based on the data from 1980 to 2017 of 10 emerging economies including Latin America, Asia and Africa, this paper utilizes the Logit model to do the empirical analysis of the debt crisis warning. It is found that the Logit method can issue early warning signals with high degree of accuracy and provide a good early warning signal for the debt crisis on emerging economies.Finally, by analyzing the characteristics of sovereign debt crisis in emerging economies, this article gave suggestions:establishing corresponding debt warning mechanism, strictly controlling the borrowing scale, maintaining appropriate and sufficient international reserves, and improving economic structure and industrial layout.