三足鼎立:中美贸易摩擦下的国际货币新体系

在中美贸易摩擦的大背景下,全球生产、贸易和金融格局正在发生复杂、深刻且影响深远的新变化。本文基于国际货币体系的现状,尝试对国际货币体系的未来走势进行短期、中期和长期的沙盘推演,从基本形态、触发条件、作用机制和潜在影响等几个方面分析了未来国际货币体系的多重均衡状态。短期来看,美元的主导地位得以延续;中期来看,美元危机及现行体系崩溃的风险上升;长期来看,美元、欧元、人民币三足鼎立的国际货币新体系将最终形成。

The Tri-Polar International Monetary System under China-US Trade Disputes

Under the circumstances of China-US trade disputes, the structure of international production, trade and finance is undergoing new complex and profound changes. Meanwhile, the evolution path of the international monetary system seems to be more and more ambiguous, due to the rising volatility and uncertainty in the global financial market.This paper aims at predicting the potential patterns of the international monetary system in the short term, medium term and long term.Based on the historical experience and current situation of the international monetary system, this paper characterizes the multi-dimensional attributes of the international monetary system in terms of foreign exchange turnover, currency decomposition of international debts and loans, official foreign exchange reserves, and global payment system, and then traces its dynamic changes from 1975 to 2017. Through reviewing the existing classic literature both theoretically and empirically, such as Matsuyama et al.(1993), Rey(2001), Fratzscher & Mehl(2014) and Eichengreen et al.(2018), this paper also explores the multiple equilibria of the international monetary system under different conditions, which helps to provide a useful framework to analyze different scenarios of the system from several aspects of the fundamentals, trigger conditions, mechanism and potential impacts.This paper argues that the US dollar as an invoicing, issuance, anchor and reserve currency still occupies its dominant position in the international monetary system in the short term, and its hegemony could even be intensified when other alternative international currencies suffer from a variety of internal or external shocks. However, the risks of the sovereign default and dollar crisis tends to rise continuously in the medium term, which may induce the collapse of the current international monetary system in some extreme cases. Eventually, a new tri-polar international monetary system comprising of US dollar,Euro and RMB is bound to show up in the long run, and the stability and efficiency of global financial market would be enhanced.