| Abstract: | Deviations from Long-Run Equilibria and Probabilities of Devaluations — An Empirical Analysis of Danish Realignments. — The probabilities of realignments between the Danish krone and the D-mark are investigated for the 1979–1995 period. Two multivariate systems are estimated. In the I (1) systems, the deviations from the cointegration relations are used as explanatory variables when determining the probabilities of exchange rate changes. It is found that real imbalances in the economy have to a large extent determined the probabilities of central parity changes. Furthermore, the probabilities of central parity changes have been significantly lower after 1983. |
