我国并购浪潮假说的实证检验

并购活动呈浪潮式发展在西方发达国家几乎已成典型化事实,回顾我国并购活动发展历程发现,这一典型化事实在我国似乎也是存在的.为了加强对总体并购活动发展态势的了解和掌握,促进我国并购理论的完善和发展,本文对我国并购浪潮假说进行检验.检验结果表明,三状态马尔科夫区制转移模型和我们对并购浪潮的定义能够正确地刻画我国总体并购活动,我国总体并购活动呈浪潮式发展,并购活动具有周期性,而拒绝认为并购活动遵循随机游走过程.

Empirical Test of Merger Waves Hypothesis in China

The thing that merger activities move as waves has almost been classical fact in western countries. We can find from the movement of merger activities in China that such classical fact may exist. For the understanding of merger activities stance and for the development of merger theory of our country, we test merger wave s hypothesis in China. The result shows that Markov Switching Model with three regimes and the definition of merger waves in this paper can correctly depict aggregate merger activities in China. That is to say, aggregate merger activities in China move as waves, they are periodic, so we refuse to think that merger activities move as random walk.