昆山市耕地总量动态平衡边界研究

研究目的:研究耕地总量动态平衡边界,促进耕地总量动态平衡政策实施。研究方法:采用相关分析和多元线性回归法建立耕地数量变化的驱动力模型,通过建立边界分析函数确定耕地资源占用的经济边界和停滞时间。研究结果:在维持目前相对稳定高速的经济发展趋势和最为严格的耕地保护政策实施强度不变的前提下,昆山市经济发展正逐渐向节约和集约利用土地方向发展,单从地区生产总值和第二产业生产总值发展角度来说,昆山市耕地数量将在250843.7—24637.8 hm2间达到边界值,此后地区生产总值和第二产业生产总值的提升将不再依赖于耕地占用;达到边界值的时间大致为2011—2012年左右,且第二产业生产总值的边际耕地占用比地区生产总值的边际耕地占用更早达到边界值。研究结论:耕地面积的变化存在着类似环境的库兹涅兹曲线,曲线拐点出现时刻即为达到耕地总量动态平衡的时间,该时间点不仅与社会经济发展变化有关,同时受到耕地保护政策实施力度的影响。

Research on the Threshold of Total Cultivated Land Dynamic Equilibrium in Kunshan

The purpose of this study is to analyze the threshold of total cultivated land dynamic equilibrium in order to enhance the operability of total cultivated land dynamic equilibrium policy.Methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regressions are employed to find out the driving forces of cultivated land change.The paper further develops a threshold analysis function to predict the maximum threshold of the cultivated land to be occupied due to economic growth.The results indicate that the marginal value of occupying cultivated land for GDP growth and industrial production in Kunshan is decreasing,and the land is approaching intensive and economized use pattern.If maintaining the current land protection policy,the threshold of cultivated land decrease will be between 250843.7 and 24637.8 hm2,and the GDP growth and industrial production will not require more land occupation.The deadline of approaching the threshold is roughly around 2011 to 2012.The deadline of approaching the threshold is even earlier if the calculation is in terms of the industrial production than GDP growth.Similar with the Kuznets Curve of environment,there is a point of inflexion in the cultivated land loss.The time of approaching the inflexion is just the time for achieving the dynamic balance.The time is not only related to social and economic development,but also affected by the implementation of land protection polices.