生产性行业温室气体排放的产业结构效应研究

通过产业结构调整来减缓温室气体排放,需要客观认识我国不同产业部门温室气体排放的主要特征及规律,并识别出主要影响因素。为此,选择了农业、工业、建筑、交通、商业、能源六个主要的化石能源消费行业,在估计了各行业1996～2009年化石能源相关的CO2排放量的基础上,基于对数平均迪氏指数分解对CO2排放进行分解,重点考察了产业结构调整效应以及在不同产业内的相对贡献。研究结论表明:六大产业排放的温室气体从1996年的28.13亿吨以年均6.5%的速度增加,2009年排放量增至64.1亿吨,占当年全国和全球化石能源相关的CO2排放的83%和21%;温室气体排放的主要来源是能源、工业和交通业;产出规模扩张是导致二氧化碳排放增加的主要原因,产业结构调整、部门能源效率的改善在一定程度上抑制了二氧化碳的排放,但不足以抵消产出规模效应,能源结构和碳排放系数效应也减缓了温室气体排放,但影响程度很小。农业和能源部门经济比重的下降有效减缓了温室气体排放,未来产业政策的设计应以控制工业经济规模和比重为重点,同时要结合其他行业的能源效率改善和能源结构优化等途径,共同推动温室气体减排。

Industry Restructure Effect of CO2 Emission in China

To identify the key sectors and measure the industry restructure effect for China's CO2 emission,the fossil fuel-related CO2 emission for agriculture,industry,construction,transportation,commerce and energy sector during 1996—2009 are estimated base on the energy balance table.The Logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) approach is employed to decompose the change of CO2 into output effect,energy intensity effect,industry structure effect,energy mix effect and carbon emission coefficient effect.The results show that,China's CO2 emission from fossil-fuel consumption in these six industries raised dramatically from 2813 Mt in 1996 to 6410 Mt in 2009 with the annual growth rate of 6.5%.The major emission source is energy,industry and transportation sectors.The expand of output level contribute most to the increase of CO2,while industry restructures and improvement of energy efficiency slows down the CO2 emission.A further investigation cross six sectors suggest that,future industrial policy should pay more attention to the economy scale and industry restructuring.