人民币汇率对FDI影响的实证分析

文章通过对汇率与FD I相关理论的述评和构建计量模型后认为:人民币汇率长期波动的降低和人民币贬值都能促进FD I的流入,而短期波动对FD I的影响并不显著。在2005年7月我国实行更有弹性的汇率机制后,保持汇率的长期稳定对促进外资流入具有重大的意义,同时可以在短期内调整汇率波动的自由度,加大宏观调控的政策空间。由于GDP增长比汇率变化对FD I的影响更为显著,因此名义汇率的升值并不会使我国今后的FD I流入明显下降。

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of the RMB Exchange Rate on FDI

Based on reviewing theories of exchange rates and FDI and establishing econometricmodeling, this article suggests that lowering long-term volatility of the RMB exchange rate and the devaluation of the RMB will promote FDI inflows, while short-term fluctuations do not significantly affect FDI. In July China adopted a more flexible exchange rate mechanism, which significantly maintains the long-term stability of the exchange rate. Meanwhile the freedom of volatility in the exchange rate can be adjusted in the near future and macro-control policy space will be widened. GDP growth is due to the impact of exchange rate change on the more notable FDI, so the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate does not resuit in our future FDI inflows declineing markedly.