| 北京房价泡沫变动趋向及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 王春雷,黄素心.北京房价泡沫变动趋向及影响因素[J].商业研究,2011(10):191-195. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王春雷 黄素心 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西大学商学院;广西民族大学商学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过采用单位根与协整分析方法,研究了北京房价泡沫的变动趋势及影响因素,结果表明汇改对北京的房价泡沫形成起到了推动作用:汇改前,房价与经济基本面变量之间存在长期均衡关系,泡沫不存在;汇改后,房价泡沫产生,受到紧缩性政策和人民币升值预期变化和外资进入的影响,泡沫程度呈现出"横S型"的变动趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 房价泡沫 经济基本面 协整 汇改 |
Trend and Influencing Factors about House Price Bubbles in Beijing |
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| WANG Chun-lei,HUANG Su-xin.Trend and Influencing Factors about House Price Bubbles in Beijing[J].Commercial Research,2011(10):191-195. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chun-lei HUANG Su-xin |
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| Institution: | WANG Chun-lei1,HUANG Su-xin2(1.School of Business,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China,2.School of Business,Guangxi University for Nationalities,Nanning 530006,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the trend and influencing factors about house price bubbles in Beijing,using the method of unit root and cointegration analysis.The results show that exchange rate reform has an impulse on the forming of housing price bubbles.Before the reform,housing price has a cointegration relationship with economic fundamentals in Beijing,bubbles do not exist.After the reform,bubbles do exist,and the variation of bubbles′ degree presents a "horizontal S shape",which is mostly caused by the contract policies,the changes of appreciation expectation of RMB and the entrance of foreign capital. |
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| Keywords: | house price bubbles economic fundamentals cointegration exchange rate reform |
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