经济增长与外商直接投资关系研究——基于上海市数据的实证分析

本文根据1990-2005年上海市GDP与FDI的时间序列数据分析,采用线性回归分析方法研究FDI与上海市经济增长之间的关系.格兰杰因果分析表明:上海市经济增长与外商直接投资之间存在着单向因果关系,即只存在从GDP到FDI的单向因果关系.之后的方差分析表明:上海市经济增长对于外商直接投资的影响非常显著,反之却影响甚微.而二者在长期中却有着因果关联性及互动关系.为此,在吸引外资战略上要采取长期而非短期的政策.

A Study of the Relation between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Shanghai

The paper studies the relation between FDI and economic growth of Shanghai by taking a linear regression and data analysis of the time series of the GDP and FDI of Shanghai during the sixteen years between 1990 and 2005. The Granger cause-and-effeot analysis shows that there exists a unilateral cause-and-effect relation between them, namely, a onesided relation from the GDP to FDI. And the following variance analysis indicates that the economic growth of Shanghai has a considerable influence on the foreign direct investment, but the influence from the other way around is pretty small. However, in the long run, there is a relation of cause-and-effect and interaction between the two, and thus long-term instead of shortterm policies should be taken in the pursuit of bringing in foreign direct investment.