| 基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 戴大双,刘宁,徐晓晴. 基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价方法[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2011, 28(13): 10-13. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7348.2011.13.003 |
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| 作者姓名： | 戴大双 刘宁 徐晓晴 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学管理学院;沈阳建筑大学管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71072107); 建设部软科学研究课题(2009-R3-09) |
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| 摘 要： | 基础设施建设以及开发环境涉及的不确定性是政府或投资者关注的核心问题之一。实物期权方法是解决不确定性问题的一个有效途径,云理论对于不确定性有更准确的描述。首先,结合实物期权理论及云理论,建立了基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价模型,可以更准确地描述项目的期望与风险程度;其次,结合基础设施建设项目特征,用正态云模型的期望、熵和超熵表示期望现金流现值和投资成本,得到实物期权价值计算方法;最后,通过实际案例分析,验证了方法的有效性,并提出了未来研究的方向与建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 基础设施建设 实物期权 正态云 熵 |
Methods of Infrastructure Construction Real Option Pricing Based on the Normal Cloud |
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| Dai Dashuang,liu Ning,Xu Xiaoqing. Methods of Infrastructure Construction Real Option Pricing Based on the Normal Cloud[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2011, 28(13): 10-13. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7348.2011.13.003 |
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| Authors: | Dai Dashuang liu Ning Xu Xiaoqing |
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| Affiliation: | Dai Dashuang1,liu Ning1,Xu Xiaoqing1(1.School of Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China,2.School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China) |
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| Abstract: | Uncertainty involved in infrastructure construction and the development environment is one of the core problems which government or investors focused on,real option method is an effective way to solve the uncertainties and cloud theory describes the uncertainty more accurate.Firstly,this paper combines real option theory with cloud theory to set infrastructure construction real option pricing model based on normal cloud,which can more accurately describe the project expectations and risk degree;Secondly,usi... |
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| Keywords: | Infrastructure Construction Real Option Normal Cloud Entropy |
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